The IOC's evaluation commission is heading to Japan this week on the first leg of its three-city tour to examine the bids from Tokyo, Madrid and Istanbul - a key phase in assessing the pros and cons of the multi-billion dollar projects.
Chaired by IOC Vice President Craig Reedie of Britain, the 14-member panel will meet in each city with bid leaders, visit proposed venues and hone in on issues such as finances, accommodations, transportation, security and public support.
The commission will later compile a detailed technical report that will be submitted to the 100-plus IOC members who will select the host city by secret ballot Sept. 7 in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
"The interesting thing about this one is that all three have been candidates before on a number of occasions," Reedie said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press before flying to Tokyo on Thursday.
Istanbul is bidding again after four unsuccessful attempts, Madrid is back for a third time in a row and Tokyo for a second consecutive try. Tokyo hosted the 1964 Olympics, and Spain held the games in Barcelona in 1992. Istanbul is seeking to bring the games to a new region and to a predominantly Muslim nation for the first time.
The IOC visits come with all three countries facing serious political or economic challenges.
"The whole evaluation process .... is in some ways a risk assessment," Reedie said.
Spain is still in a deep recession with 25 percent unemployment, and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has been fending off allegations that he received money from a slush fund. Japan is trying to revive a stagnant economy and is engaged in a potentially volatile territorial dispute with China over uninhabited islands. Turkey is dealing with the spillover of the civil war in neighboring Syria, and the U.S. Embassy in Ankara was hit by a suicide bombing Feb. 1 that killed the attacker and a Turkish security guard.
At a time of continuing economic hardship around the world, financial issues will be examined closely by the IOC panel.
Istanbul, with the most to build, has a budget of $19.2 billion for infrastructure, compared to $4.9 billion for Tokyo and $1.9 billion for Madrid.
The commission's working meetings in Tokyo run from next Monday through Thursday. The panel will then visit Madrid from March 18-21 and Istanbul from March 24-27.
The panel's report will be written by the end of April and submitted to IOC members before a meeting in Lausanne, Switzerland, in early July, where the bid cities will make technical presentations and take questions. As in the past, the report will not rank the cities, providing mainly factual information and data to let the voting members make up their own minds in Buenos Aires.
"There is a narrow line between technical fact and personal opinion," Reedie said. "As individual members, we would want to resist personal opinions. We want to make sure this is the whole view."
How much difference the technical report will make in the end is uncertain. IOC votes are invariably swung by other factors, including politics, sentiment, geography, personal friendships and other intangibles.
Missing from the evaluation panel will be IOC sports director Christophe Dubi. Reedie said Dubi was asked to remain at IOC headquarters in Lausanne to work on the Olympic sports program, a decision made in the wake of the IOC executive board's decision to cut wrestling from the list for 2020.
Wrestling has a high profile in Japan and Turkey, and both countries would want the sport on the program if they get the games.
Reedie said his panel would be willing to meet with opposition groups during the visits if time permits and the requests are made through the bid committees. The Tokyo bid has been targeted by animal rights activists opposed to dolphin hunting and critics of the government's decision to scrap a tuition-waiver program for 10 pro-North Korea high schools.
Reedie said the IOC visit to London in 2005 was key in the British capital's winning bid for the 2012 Olympics.
"It was a seminal moment in terms of encouraging a slightly skeptical British media that this was serious and this was good," he said. "If we can do that in Tokyo, Madrid and Istanbul, we serve the Olympic movement and the ambitions of these cities."